Professor Jem Bendell, July 7th, 2019
Since the
Deep Adaptation paper was released from IFLAS at
the end of July 2018, there have been many alarming reports about environmental
change and its implications for humanity. These reports, from the world’s
leading scientists and international organisations, provide extra weight to the
argument that humanity needs to prepare for disruptive impacts as well as
seeking to curb them. Prepared by the author of the Deep Adaptation paper,
Professor Jem Bendell, this Compendium summarises some of the more significant studies. The
Compendium is divided into four sections. The first is on our changing climate,
the second is on related environmental changes, and the third is on societal impacts
and the fourth is on the significance of our response.
These summaries of 23 studies over the 12 months since July 2018
is nowhere near exhaustive, but provides a basis for an up-to-date discussion.
In most summaries of each research report, Professor Bendell offers a short
reflection in a paragraph beginning “One might conclude that…” Such paragraphs
should not be equated with what the research paper authors write themselves.
If you work on this topic professionally, or have written
one of the papers and would like to comment, we encourage you to consider
joining in the
Research Discussion Group on the Deep Adaptation Forum at
www.deepadaptation.info. This Compendium does not include recent research on mitigation
innovations or on adaptation to climate change, the latter of which will be
covered in a future summary. If you are a researcher and could help with
compiling such a Compendium on Adaptation, for release in 2020, please join the
Research Group where you will find some guidance for contributing. To keep
up-to-date with future research summaries, please consider subscribing to the
Deep Adaptation Quarterly.
To reference this compendium, please cite:
Bendell, J. (2019)
Compendium of Research Reports on
Climate Chaos and Impacts, Unpublished Research Note, Institute for
Leadership and Sustainability (IFLAS), University of Cumbria, UK.
OUR CHANGING CLIMATE
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
This study introduced the notion of "tipping
cascades" (p4) in our climate system, helping us to understand the risk
posed to the future of the human race from destabilising our climate. The list
of potential tipping points or cascading systems that the paper discusses
includes the thaw of permafrost, which would release trapped greenhouse gases;
the death of the Amazon rainforest, which would eliminate one of the most
powerful natural ways that atmospheric carbon dioxide gets reduced; and the
loss of ice sheets. It explains strong, intrinsic, biogeophysical feedbacks
that are difficult to influence by human actions. “If these tipping points were
to cascade, a high level of warming could be locked in no matter what humans
tried to do" (p6). Agricultural production and water supplies are
especially vulnerable to changes in the hydroclimate, leading to hot/dry or
cool/wet extremes. Societal declines, collapses, migrations/resettlements,
reorganizations, and cultural changes were often associated with severe regional
droughts and with the global megadrought at 4.2–3.9 thousand years before
present, all occurring within the relative stability of the narrow global
Holocene temperature range of approximately ±1°C (p5). The authors describe the
possibility of a climate trajectory that they call Hothouse Earth. Such a
situation would exceed the limits of adaptation and result in a substantial
overall decrease in agricultural production, increased prices, and even more
disparity between wealthy and poor countries (p5). A Hothouse Earth trajectory
would almost certainly flood deltaic environments, increase the risk of damage
from coastal storms, and eliminate coral reefs (and all of the benefits that
they provide for societies). While reducing emissions is a priority, much more
could be done to reduce direct human pressures on critical biomes that
contribute to the regulation of the state of the Earth System through carbon
sinks and moisture feedbacks, such as the Amazon and boreal forests, and to
build much more effective stewardship of the marine and terrestrial biospheres
in general (p5). The contemporary way of guiding development founded on
theories, tools, and beliefs of gradual or incremental change, with a focus on
economy efficiency, will likely not be adequate to cope with this trajectory (p6).
One might conclude that this study shows how we need to not
only have systemic change to drawdown and cut carbon, but also that we need to
prepare to deeply adapt to the coming climate chaos. The mainstream climate
adaptation community has been based on an assumption of maintaining current
socio-economic systems, and this study could imply that we move beyond that to
discuss how to adapt to a breakdown in our normal societies (i.e. the “deep
adaptation” agenda).
Steffen, W. et al (July 2018) "Trajectories of the
Earth System in the Anthropocene",
PNAS. Available from:
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/07/31/1810141115.full.pdf
(accessed 30 Dec 2018)
Global Warming Will Happen Faster Than We Think
This study concludes that three lines of evidence suggest
that global warming will be faster than projected in the 2018 IPCC special
report. First, greenhouse-gas emissions are still rising – and more rapidly.
Second, governments are cleaning up other forms of air pollution faster than
the IPCC and most climate modellers have assumed, thereby reducing the aerosol
masking effect (global dimming). Third, there are signs that the planet might
be entering a natural warm phase that could last for a couple of decades. The
Pacific Ocean seems to be warming up, in accord with a slow climate cycle known
as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. The authors conclude that "These
three forces reinforce each other. We estimate that rising greenhouse-gas
emissions, along with declines in air pollution, bring forward the estimated
date of 1.5 °C of warming to around 2030, with the 2 °C boundary reached by
2045"
One might conclude from this study that it is time to listen
to the many critics of the IPCC for being too conservative in its estimates,
arising from questionable methodology and political influence (see below). The
implication is that we cannot continue our incremental efforts like we do now;
even if we try to, the planet won’t let us.
Xu,Y., Ramanathan,V. & Victor, D. (2019) "Global
warming will happen faster than we think"
Nature 564, 30-32
Available from
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR2-BZM9BB8wXGw37sQ54MgUQ5kSPWBod060HQjVuc658KidE_s0x25cXPw
(Accessed Jan 5 2019)
Global Reconstruction Of Historical Ocean Heat Storage And
Transport
This study used analysis of real time currents and ocean
temperature changes to reconstruct ocean temperature changes over the past
century. Estimating for global, full-depth ocean coverage, they reveal warming
since 1871. They conclude that more than 90% of the heat trapped by humanity’s
greenhouse gas emissions has been absorbed by the seas, with just a few per
cent heating the air, land and ice caps respectively.
One might conclude from this study that we should heed those
scientists who argue that there is a significant time lag in the effect of
increased CO2 on global average atmospheric temperatures. Which means that a
lot of heating is already locked in over the coming decades, whatever we do to
emissions. Like a hot water radiator in your living room, this heat will warm
our air. That suggests we need to explore how to prepare.
Zanna, L., Khatiwala, S., Gregory, J. M., Ison J. &
Heimbach, P. (2019) "Global reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage
and transport",
PNAS. Available from
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1808838115 (Accessed Jan 8 2019)
WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018
The study provided an authoritative statement on the
accelerating rate of sea level rise. Global mean sea level for 2018 was around
3.7 mm higher than in 2017 and the highest on record. Over the period January
1993 to December 2018, the average rate of rise was 3.15 ± 0.3 mm yr-1, while
the estimated acceleration was 0.1 mm yr (p 16). However, if one does not
restrict analysis to the caution of established statisticians and uses the measurements
of sea level rise over the last few years to indicate a possible trend (rather
than anomalies), then this means the rate of rise is increasing.
This study also provided an overview of some of the impacts
from climate change. In particular it mentioned agriculture and the
displacement of people. It explained that exposure of the agricultural sector
to climate extremes is threatening to reverse gains made in ending hunger and malnutrition,
as world hunger is now rising after a prolonged decline. Hunger is
significantly worse in countries with agricultural systems that are highly
sensitive to rainfall and temperature variability and severe drought, and where
the livelihood of a high proportion of the population depends on agriculture.
Displacement is also rising due to climate change. Out of the 17.7 million IDPs
tracked by the IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (IOM DTM), over 2 million
people were displaced due to disasters linked to weather and climate events as
at September 2018.
One might conclude from the data on sea level rise that the whole
climate system is now changing in a non-linear way. That means a form of
runaway climate change. Because, as explained in the Deep Adaptation paper, sea
level rise can only come from the melting of ice on land or the thermal
expansion of water – so it is a key indicator of overall changes.
WMO (2019) "WMO Statement on the State of the Global
Climate in 2018", WMO Available at
https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=5789
Climate Change Drives Widespread and Rapid Thermokarst
Development in Very Cold Permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic
This paper reports that the melting of the permafrost in one
area of the Arctic is happening much faster than had been projected by models,
even running the worst-case scenarios based on emissions growth. What is being
seen now was not meant to be happening until 2090.
One might conclude that this is evidence of climate change
occurring much faster than past predictions and therefore the situation is more
dangerous than intergovernmental consensus had warned and that the cause of
this discrepancy could be the positive feedback loops, where the Earth is now
heating itself.
Farquharson, L. M., Romanovsky, V.E., Cable, W. L., Walker,
D. A., Kokelj,S. V., & Nicolsky, D. (2019). "Climate change drives
widespread and rapid thermokarst development in very cold permafrost in the
Canadian High Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters, 46. Available at
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082187
Greenland Melt Drives Continuous Export Of Methane From
The Ice-Sheet Bed.
This study explains that ice sheets have been ignored in assessments
of global methane predictions and budgets. This research found that ice sheets
overlie extensive, biologically active methanogenic wetlands and that high
rates of methane export to the atmosphere can occur as ice sheets melt. The
research shows that the methane situation is worse than we thought.
One might conclude that this is another example of how
methane has not been given sufficient attention in our climate change
assessments, which is a grave error given how powerfully warming the gas is in
the atmosphere.
Lamarche-Gagnon, G. et al (2019) "Greenland melt drives
continuous export of methane from the ice-sheet bed."
Nature Vol.
565, pages 73–77. Available from https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0800-0
(Accessed Jan 3, 2019)
Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth In The Four Years
2014-2017: Implications For The Paris Agreement
This study finds that methane's increase since 2007 was not
expected in future greenhouse gas scenarios compliant with the targets of the
Paris Agreement. If the increase continues at the same rates it may become very
difficult to meet the Paris goals. The radiative forcing, or heating effect
from methane is about 25% stronger than the value used in the IPCC assessment.
There is now urgent need to reduce methane emissions, especially from the
fossil fuel industry. If the increased methane burden is driven by increased
emissions from natural sources or driven by a decline in the oxidative capacity
of the atmosphere, and that these are climate feedbacks (warming driving
further warming) then the implications are serious indeed.
One might conclude from this study that our situation is
more precarious than we had been told before, that methane emissions need
cutting immediately, but that we don’t know if reducing those emissions will
make much difference to atmospheric levels, so we need to consider other
options. Such options might include limited and cautious forms of
geoengineering but must also include adaptation to future climate chaos. There
is no conclusive evidence from this study that there is significant methane
release from hydrates on the Arctic seafloor (which is the major concern, as
that would threaten human extinction).
Nisbet, E. G., et al. (2019) “Very strong atmospheric
methane growth in the four years 2014-2017: Implications for the Paris
Agreement” Global Biogeochemical Cycles Vol. 3 Issue 33 pp 318-342, Available
at
https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB006009
Permafrost Nitrous Oxide Emissions Observed On A Landscape
Scale Using The Airborne Eddy-Covariance Method
This study looked at Nitrous Oxide, a greenhouse gas nearly
300 times more potent than carbon dioxide and which stays in the atmosphere for
an average of 114 years. It has “conventionally been assumed to have minimal
emissions in permafrost regions”, according to the authors. They found that
nitrous oxide emissions are 12 times higher than previously thought and
therefore more of a threat. These emissions are coming from melting permafrost.
Nitrous oxide also poses a second threat because in the stratosphere, sunlight
and oxygen convert the gas into nitrogen oxides, which destroy the ozone layer.
One might conclude that this study shows how once we
destabilise the climate sufficiently, there are unforeseen consequences, so
that we are not in control of the situation (if we ever were).
Wilkerson, J. et.al. (2019) “Permafrost nitrous oxide
emissions observed on a landscape scale using the airborne eddy-covariance
method” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 19, 4257-4268. Available at
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4257-2019
(Accessed April 19 2019)
Large Influence Of Soil Moisture On Long-Term Terrestrial
Carbon Uptake.
This study is the first to actually quantify the effects
through the 21st century and demonstrates that wetter-than-normal years do not
compensate for losses in carbon uptake during dryer-than-normal years, caused
by events such as droughts or heatwaves. That is an important finding because,
currently, the ocean and terrestrial biosphere (forests, savannas, etc.) are
absorbing about 50% of releases of greenhouse gases by human activity
—explaining the bleaching of coral reefs and acidification of the ocean, as
well as the increase of carbon storage in our forests. The authors state:
"It is unclear, however, whether the land can continue to uptake
anthropogenic emissions at the current rates." Instead, there findings
suggest that the increasing trend in carbon uptake rate [on land] may not be
sustained past the middle of this century and could result in accelerated
atmospheric CO2 growth.
One might conclude that this is another example of how the
planet’s capacity for moderating human activity has been breached, and
therefore we now face runaway climate change, so that drawing down and cutting
carbon is no longer a sufficient agenda.
Gentine, P. et al (2019) "Large influence of soil
moisture on long-term terrestrial carbon uptake."
Nature 565,
476–479
What Lies Beneath: The Understatement Of Existential
Climate Risk
This report explains how the process of consensus and
scientific conservativism in the IPCC means that over decades it has systematically
under-estimated the pace and risks of climate change. It explains that this reckless
conservativism has been supported by a culture of political expediency: deciding
what is acceptable to say to placate governments and their corporate interests.
It gives details of how the IPCC have excluded key information over the years due
to uncertainty, rather than including it based on a precautionary principle. It
explains how the IPCC shifted the baseline from the start of the industrial revolution
to 1850 in order to make the targets seem more feasible. It then argues that IPCC
carbon budgets are false; once projected emissions from future food production
and deforestation are taken into account, there is no carbon budget left for
fossil-fuel emissions within a 2°C global heating target. (p24).
The authors argue that rapid reduction of carbon emissions was
excluded from consideration by policymakers because it is deemed to be too
economically dislocating. Therefore the IPCC accepted the continuing expansion
of
fossil fuels in the first half of the
21st century, eventually counteracted by massive expansion of
negative emission technologies, including
those not yet invented or not economic at scale, in the second half of the
century. The authors that that in so doing, both the IPCC and government policymakers
are complicit today in destroying the very conditions which make human life
possible – and that there is no greater crime against humanity (p39). The authors
condemn the “fragility at the highest levels of corporate and public service
leaderships. Their ability to spot, identify and handle unexpected,
non-normative events is... perilously inadequate at critical moments...” (p38).
The authors argue that a different paradigm was required,
that focused on existential risk management i.e. deliberations on what is
needed to protect billions of people and even the very survival of the human race.
That “requires brutally honest articulation of the risks, opportunities and the
response time frame, the development of new existential risk-management
techniques outside conventional politics, and global leadership and integrated
policy.” (p15).
One might conclude that this report adds weight to the
arguments in the Deep Adaptation paper that those working on environmental
issues are amongst the worst deniers of likely collapse, due to their income,
status and identity being wedded to a narrative of pragmatism of incremental
change. One might also wonder whether the IPCC’s past winners of the Nobel Prize
may one day face calls to appear in a future Climate Truth and Reconciliation process,
for crimes against humanity.
Spratt, D., & Dunlop, I. (2018) "What lies beneath:
The Understatement Of Existential Climate Risk"
National Centre for
Climate Restoration. Available from https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au
(Accessed Jan 1 2019)
Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage
and water of oceanic low-level clouds
This study reports on the latest insight into the cooling
effect of the aerosol pollution from human activity. It is mainstream consensus
that the global climate is cooled by about 0.5 C due to an aerosol masking
effect, coming from pollution from burning coal and other dirty fuels. The
research concludes that the atmosphere is twice as sensitive to aerosols as was
previously thought, so that more of the sun’s rays are reflected away from the
Earth than previously calculated.
One might conclude that this finding means it is game over
for humanity preserving our current civilisation. By which I mean as we clean
up our dirty pollution, then the world’s climate will heat further and very
fast (as the masking effect from such pollution only lasts about a month or
so). Some may conclude that this situation means we even risk rates of warming
that could trigger cascading feedbacks that risk not only societal collapse but
human extinction. With that in mind, more people may call for Marine Cloud
Brightening to be tested right now over the Arctic.
Rosenfeld David; Zhu, Yannian; Wang, Minghuai; Zheng,
Youtong; Goren, Tom & Yu, Shaocai (2019) "Aerosol-driven droplet
concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low-level clouds"
Science Vol. 363, Issue 6427. Available at
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6427/eaav0566
Status of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase
6 (CMIP6) and Goals of the Workshop
This is a presentation for a workshop where the latest
generation of climate models was discussed.
The latest climate models, which use more advanced
scientific methods, are showing temperatures rises at least 2 degrees hotter than
previous projections based on the same carbon emissions. There are a variety of
theories about why, some of which relate to the importance of more dynamic relationships
between multiple factors. Although not a peer-reviewed paper, it is included here
because it helps explain why the IPCC and climate science community have been under-predicting
the pace and impacts of climate change.
One might conclude from this conference presentation that we
will soon have a more accurate view of what the climate may do in future. That
would be a mistake, because models are not great predictors of climate.
Instead, the fact that these models are projecting more rapid and damaging
changes than past models shows how the previous confidence of climate
scientists and policy makers, including within the IPCC, was based on a false pride
in a particular mode of human thought – using statistics and computers. Instead,
information from the paleo record, basic logic, and actual observations, combined
with the precautionary approach and a reverence for nature, could have led to more
intelligent conversations over decades within the field of climate science and
policy. However, these models do suggest that the future IPCC meetings and
reports are going to be quite dramatic. Yet if the international system of cooperation
breaks down in the face of climate disruption then their soft power may disappear.
Eyring, V; Flato, G; Lamarque, J; Meehl, J; Senior, C;
Stouffer, R & Taylor K (2019) “Status of the Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project Phase 6 and Goals of the Workshop” Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project. Available at
https://cmip6workshop19.sciencesconf.org/data/CMIP6_CMIP6AnalysisWorkshop_Barcelona_190325_FINAL.pdf
RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE
Worldwide Decline Of The Entomofauna: A Review Of Its
Drivers
The study shows that the biodiversity of insects is
threatened worldwide. Compiling a range of studies, it estimates 80% of the
total biomass of insects has disappeared in 25-30 years. It reveals dramatic
rates of decline that may lead to the extinction of 40% of the world's insect
species over the next few decades. This is a huge problem for ecosystems and the
human race, as insects are at the base of every food web; they pollinate the
large majority of plant species, keep the soil healthy, recycle nutrients, and control
pests. The paper finds that intensive agriculture is the main driver of the
declines, particularly the heavy use of pesticides, but that climate change is
also a significant factor.
One might conclude from this report that humans have made
the environment more susceptible to collapse from climate change, by weakening
ecosystems. Together, this may be a perfect storm that speeds up the collapse
agricultural productivity and therefore human civilisation as we know it today.
Sánchez-Bayo, F., & Wyckhuys, K. A. G. (2019) “Worldwide
decline of the entomofauna: A review of its drivers” Biological Conservation
Vol. 232, pp 8-27.
Available at
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718313636
IPBES Global Assessment (Preview)
This study will be a 1,800-page tome authored by 400 scientists,
published by a UN agency. In a preview of the full document, it chronicles
widespread destruction wrought by humans, some of it irreparable. Up to a
million of Earth's estimated eight million species face extinction, many of
them within decades. This is shown to have major impacts on agriculture and
thus food supply. Therefore “feeding the world in a sustainable manner entails
the transformation of food systems," the report notes. It calls for revamping
global food production, retooling the financial sector, moving beyond GDP as a
measure of progress and many other "transformative changes"
to both save Nature and ourselves.
One might conclude from this report, and how it has been promoted
ahead of full publication, that the scientific community involved in the
environment is starting to panic as they see the collapse of ecosystems around
the world.
Díaz, Sandra; Settele, Josef; Brondízio, Eduardo et al
(2019) "Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on
biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy
Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services [Advance copy]" IPBES.
Available at
https://www.ipbes.net/system/tdf/ipbes_7_10_add-1-_advance_0.pdf
(accessed 7 July 2019)
Co-Extinctions
Annihilate Planetary Life During Extreme Environmental Change
This study concludes
that many species die together when key species are badly affected. “As our
understanding of the importance of ecological interactions in shaping ecosystem
identity advances, it is becoming clearer how the disappearance of consumers
following the depletion of their resources - a process known as ‘co-extinction’
- is more likely the major driver of biodiversity loss… ecological dependencies
amplify the direct effects of environmental change on the collapse of planetary
diversity by up to ten times.”
One might
conclude that Chief Seattle was the smart one in the room when he told the
invaders: “Humankind has not woven the web of life.
We are but
one thread within it.
Whatever we
do to the web, we do to ourselves.
All things
are bound together.
All things
connect.”
Strona,
Giovanni & Bradshaw, Corey J. A.
(2018) “Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme
environmental change” Nature: Scientific Reports Vol. 8, Article number: 16724.
Available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1 accessed Jun 23 2019
SOCIETAL IMPACTS
Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ºC
This study from the IPCC warned that the impacts and costs
1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming will be far greater than the expectations
previously established by the IPCC. It argues that half a degree may be the
difference between a world with coral reefs and Arctic summer sea ice, and a
world without them. To meet a goal of only 1.5 °C average warming, this demands
immediately cutting the planet’s emissions to 45 % below 2010 levels by 2030. The
report states this target means “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes
in all aspects of society.” It notes that the world is on track for a 3-4°C
temperature rise: something that will be catastrophic for human civilisation.
One might conclude from this report that the climate system
is more sensitive than policy makers knew, and therefore mitigation targets
should be even more stringent. However, the report is from the IPCC, which now
has a proven track record of underestimating and toning down findings. Looking
at its recommendations, which include rolling out technologies for carbon sequestration
which do not exist yet, one may conclude that this report is the first time
readers are able to conclude that it is too late to stop catastrophic warming,
and so the agenda needs to more clearly involve adaptation.
IPCC (2018), "Global Warming of 1.5 ºC",
IPCC.
Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15 (accessed 30 Dec 2018)
The Effects Of Climate Extremes On Global
Agricultural Yields
This study finds that Africa is most vulnerable to hunger as
temperatures rise, in part because most of their grain is consumed by humans,
so there is little leeway when harvests fail. It argues that “increasing the
resilience climate extremes requires a concerted effort at local, regional and
international levels to reduce negative impacts for farmers and communities
depending on agriculture for their living."
One might conclude from this study that adaptation to
climate change could become the central principle for anti-poverty programmes
across Africa and the majority world.
Vogel, Elisabeth, et al. (2019) “The effects of climate
extremes on global agricultural yields” Environmental Research Letters, Vol.
14, No 5 Available at
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab154b
(accessed July 3 2019)
The State of the World’s Biodiversity for Food and
Agriculture
This study explains that of 6000 cultivable plant species,
only 9 account for 66% of total global crop production, which means they are
very vulnerable to diseases. More food than ever is produced, but in
monocultures and only 1% of farmland is used in organic production. There is
also a rapid decline in key ecosystems that deliver numerous services essential
to food and agriculture, including supply of freshwater, protection against
storms, floods and other hazards, and habitats for species such as fish and
pollinators. This situation of limited food diversity increases
the risk of from climate change, which will stress plants and animals and make disease
more likely.
One might conclude from this study
that our modern agricultural system, driven by profit, has accentuated the
hazards from climate change and we urgently need leadership to diversify our
food systems, as described in my review of food security
here.
Bélanger, J., & Pilling, D. (eds.). (2019) “The State of
the World’s Biodiversity for Food and Agriculture”,
FAO Commission on Genetic Resources for Food
and Agriculture Assessments Available at
http://www.fao.org/3/CA3129EN/CA3129EN.pdf
(Accessed April 1 2019)
Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries
This study finds that global fisheries have been shrinking
due to climate change. It concludes that by combining the data on global
fishery populations with maps of rising ocean temperatures from 1930 to 2010,
in turn understanding the effects of temperature changes on sustainable catches.
This analysis is aside from the impacts of ocean acidification on fisheries.
One might conclude from this study that the human race is
being taught a lesson in remembering we are part of nature and nature is part
of us. Because not only is our own human-designed agriculture on land at threat
of disruptions through climate change, but fish are also disappearing just when
we might seek other means of sustenance.
Plagányi, É. (2019) “Climate change impacts on fisheries”
Science Vol. 363, Issue 6430, pp. 930-931. Available at
http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/930 (Accessed April 1 2019)
Climate Change and Poverty
This report notes that the world is increasingly at risk of
“climate apartheid”, where the rich pay to escape heat and hunger caused by the
escalating climate crisis. It says that the global south (or majority world)
will bear an estimated 75% of the costs of the climate crisis. It explains how
the impacts of global heating are likely to undermine not only basic rights to
life, water, food, and housing for hundreds of millions of people, but also
democracy and the rule of law. “Climate change threatens to undo the last 50
years of progress in development, global health, and poverty reduction.” In
addition, “the risk of community discontent, of growing inequality, and of even
greater levels of deprivation among some groups, will likely stimulate nationalist,
xenophobic, racist and other responses.” Therefore, “…democracy and the rule of
law, as well as a wide range of civil and political rights are every bit at
risk”. The report therefore aligns with the premise of Deep Adaptation that
climate change will create a cascade of disruption, beginning with food and
water, leading to breakdowns in societies. In the report, the author Philp Alston
strongly criticises all those working to uphold human rights, including his own
previous work, for not making the climate crisis a central issue.
One might conclude that finally someone in a senior role is
joining the climate dots to describe how changes are affecting human societies.
The author’s criticism of the reticence of his own professional community to
engage with how tragic the situation is becoming, and the difficult issues it
invites us to discuss, resonates with the analysis in the Deep Adaptation paper
on the denial within the environmental movement and profession.
Alston, Philip (2019) “Climate change and poverty” United
Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. Available at
https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/RegularSessions/Session41/Documents/A_HRC_41_39.docx
Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume II: Impacts, Risks,
And Adaptation In The United States
This report is focused on consequences of a changing climate
for government departments in the United States. It points out that departmentalising
can be counterproductive because you need to see whole systems, but
whole-system modelling "is incredibly challenging. It is hard enough to
model one system on its own, let alone connect it with a series of others."
One might conclude from this study that although some
governmental bureaucracies are seeking to engage with our predicament, despite political
volatility, there is little that can be done without leadership from the top to
reshape the whole of the economy and society. Which will either energise you or
help you to let go, depending on your perspective on the political process in
your country.
National Climate Assessment (2018) "Fourth National
Climate Assessment, Volume II"
US Global Change Research Program.
Available from https://nca2018.globalchange.gov (Accessed Jan 1 2019)
SIGNIFICANCE OF RESPONSE
Warming Assessment Of The Bottom-Up Paris Agreement Emissions
Pledges
This study looked at the climate implications of current emissions
pathways of countries. Under the Paris agreement, there is no top-down
consensus on what is a fair share of responsibility to cut carbon emissions. To
get around these differing concepts of fairness, the paper assesses each nation
by the least stringent standards they set themselves and then extrapolates this
to the world. The findings are that current policies and initiatives are putting
the world on course for a global average rise of 5 degrees.
One might conclude from this paper that despite widespread
knowledge of climate change amongst politicians and their civil servants,
current policies and trajectories mean we will experience global heating sufficient
to collapse civilisation and even threaten our own extinction. One might
conclude therefore that something is very broken – and worldwide.
Robiou du Pont, Y. & Meinshausen, M. (Nov 2018)
"Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions
pledges",
Nature Communications Vol. 9 Article 4810. Available from
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07223-9
Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019
The UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction
(GAR) is the flagship report of the United Nations on worldwide efforts to
reduce disaster risk. This study explained how “risk science is changing. Hazards
interact with each other in increasingly complex ways…” It outlines a new
Disaster Risk Assessment framework called Sendai Framework which treats risk as
a systemic and complex thing. Climate change is seen to exacerbate others risks
and now means that risk reduction policies and measures need to be much more
ambitious.
One might conclude that this UN agency is gearing up to
provide a new comprehensive and holistic philosophy and framework for how to
govern societies in turmoil. One might conclude that such a task won’t have a
chance of helping if pursued in such a technocratic fashion.
UNDRR (2019). Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk
Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction
(UNDRR)
To discuss this research or contribute to a future Compendium, visit the Deep Adaptation Forum's Research Group.
Acknowledgements: Professor Bendell thanks Matthew Slater for Research Assistance in the preparation of this Compendium and Alan Heeks for funding that assistance.