Professor Jem Bendell, July 7th, 2019
Since the Deep Adaptation paper was released from IFLAS at the end of July 2018, there have been many alarming reports about environmental change and its implications for humanity. These reports, from the world’s leading scientists and international organisations, provide extra weight to the argument that humanity needs to prepare for disruptive impacts as well as seeking to curb them. Prepared by the author of the Deep Adaptation paper, Professor Jem Bendell, this Compendium summarises some of the more significant studies. The Compendium is divided into four sections. The first is on our changing climate, the second is on related environmental changes, and the third is on societal impacts and the fourth is on the significance of our response.
These summaries of 23 studies over the 12 months since July 2018 is nowhere near exhaustive, but provides a basis for an up-to-date discussion. In most summaries of each research report, Professor Bendell offers a short reflection in a paragraph beginning “One might conclude that…” Such paragraphs should not be equated with what the research paper authors write themselves.
If you work on this topic professionally, or have written
one of the papers and would like to comment, we encourage you to consider
joining in the Research Discussion Group on the Deep Adaptation Forum at
www.deepadaptation.info. This Compendium does not include recent research on mitigation
innovations or on adaptation to climate change, the latter of which will be
covered in a future summary. If you are a researcher and could help with
compiling such a Compendium on Adaptation, for release in 2020, please join the
Research Group where you will find some guidance for contributing. To keep
up-to-date with future research summaries, please consider subscribing to the
Deep Adaptation Quarterly.
To reference this compendium, please cite:
Bendell, J. (2019) Compendium of Research Reports on Climate Chaos and Impacts, Unpublished Research Note, Institute for Leadership and Sustainability (IFLAS), University of Cumbria, UK.
OUR CHANGING CLIMATE
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
This study introduced the notion of "tipping cascades" (p4) in our climate system, helping us to understand the risk posed to the future of the human race from destabilising our climate. The list of potential tipping points or cascading systems that the paper discusses includes the thaw of permafrost, which would release trapped greenhouse gases; the death of the Amazon rainforest, which would eliminate one of the most powerful natural ways that atmospheric carbon dioxide gets reduced; and the loss of ice sheets. It explains strong, intrinsic, biogeophysical feedbacks that are difficult to influence by human actions. “If these tipping points were to cascade, a high level of warming could be locked in no matter what humans tried to do" (p6). Agricultural production and water supplies are especially vulnerable to changes in the hydroclimate, leading to hot/dry or cool/wet extremes. Societal declines, collapses, migrations/resettlements, reorganizations, and cultural changes were often associated with severe regional droughts and with the global megadrought at 4.2–3.9 thousand years before present, all occurring within the relative stability of the narrow global Holocene temperature range of approximately ±1°C (p5). The authors describe the possibility of a climate trajectory that they call Hothouse Earth. Such a situation would exceed the limits of adaptation and result in a substantial overall decrease in agricultural production, increased prices, and even more disparity between wealthy and poor countries (p5). A Hothouse Earth trajectory would almost certainly flood deltaic environments, increase the risk of damage from coastal storms, and eliminate coral reefs (and all of the benefits that they provide for societies). While reducing emissions is a priority, much more could be done to reduce direct human pressures on critical biomes that contribute to the regulation of the state of the Earth System through carbon sinks and moisture feedbacks, such as the Amazon and boreal forests, and to build much more effective stewardship of the marine and terrestrial biospheres in general (p5). The contemporary way of guiding development founded on theories, tools, and beliefs of gradual or incremental change, with a focus on economy efficiency, will likely not be adequate to cope with this trajectory (p6).
One might conclude that this study shows how we need to not only have systemic change to drawdown and cut carbon, but also that we need to prepare to deeply adapt to the coming climate chaos. The mainstream climate adaptation community has been based on an assumption of maintaining current socio-economic systems, and this study could imply that we move beyond that to discuss how to adapt to a breakdown in our normal societies (i.e. the “deep adaptation” agenda).
Steffen, W. et al (July 2018) "Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene", PNAS. Available from: https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/07/31/1810141115.full.pdf (accessed 30 Dec 2018)
Global Warming Will Happen Faster Than We Think
This study concludes that three lines of evidence suggest that global warming will be faster than projected in the 2018 IPCC special report. First, greenhouse-gas emissions are still rising – and more rapidly. Second, governments are cleaning up other forms of air pollution faster than the IPCC and most climate modellers have assumed, thereby reducing the aerosol masking effect (global dimming). Third, there are signs that the planet might be entering a natural warm phase that could last for a couple of decades. The Pacific Ocean seems to be warming up, in accord with a slow climate cycle known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. The authors conclude that "These three forces reinforce each other. We estimate that rising greenhouse-gas emissions, along with declines in air pollution, bring forward the estimated date of 1.5 °C of warming to around 2030, with the 2 °C boundary reached by 2045"
One might conclude from this study that it is time to listen to the many critics of the IPCC for being too conservative in its estimates, arising from questionable methodology and political influence (see below). The implication is that we cannot continue our incremental efforts like we do now; even if we try to, the planet won’t let us.
Xu,Y., Ramanathan,V. & Victor, D. (2019) "Global warming will happen faster than we think" Nature 564, 30-32 Available from https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR2-BZM9BB8wXGw37sQ54MgUQ5kSPWBod060HQjVuc658KidE_s0x25cXPw (Accessed Jan 5 2019)
Global Reconstruction Of Historical Ocean Heat Storage And Transport
This study used analysis of real time currents and ocean temperature changes to reconstruct ocean temperature changes over the past century. Estimating for global, full-depth ocean coverage, they reveal warming since 1871. They conclude that more than 90% of the heat trapped by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions has been absorbed by the seas, with just a few per cent heating the air, land and ice caps respectively.
One might conclude from this study that we should heed those scientists who argue that there is a significant time lag in the effect of increased CO2 on global average atmospheric temperatures. Which means that a lot of heating is already locked in over the coming decades, whatever we do to emissions. Like a hot water radiator in your living room, this heat will warm our air. That suggests we need to explore how to prepare.
Zanna, L., Khatiwala, S., Gregory, J. M., Ison J. & Heimbach, P. (2019) "Global reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage and transport", PNAS. Available from https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1808838115 (Accessed Jan 8 2019)
WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018
The study provided an authoritative statement on the accelerating rate of sea level rise. Global mean sea level for 2018 was around 3.7 mm higher than in 2017 and the highest on record. Over the period January 1993 to December 2018, the average rate of rise was 3.15 ± 0.3 mm yr-1, while the estimated acceleration was 0.1 mm yr (p 16). However, if one does not restrict analysis to the caution of established statisticians and uses the measurements of sea level rise over the last few years to indicate a possible trend (rather than anomalies), then this means the rate of rise is increasing.
This study also provided an overview of some of the impacts from climate change. In particular it mentioned agriculture and the displacement of people. It explained that exposure of the agricultural sector to climate extremes is threatening to reverse gains made in ending hunger and malnutrition, as world hunger is now rising after a prolonged decline. Hunger is significantly worse in countries with agricultural systems that are highly sensitive to rainfall and temperature variability and severe drought, and where the livelihood of a high proportion of the population depends on agriculture. Displacement is also rising due to climate change. Out of the 17.7 million IDPs tracked by the IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (IOM DTM), over 2 million people were displaced due to disasters linked to weather and climate events as at September 2018.
One might conclude from the data on sea level rise that the whole climate system is now changing in a non-linear way. That means a form of runaway climate change. Because, as explained in the Deep Adaptation paper, sea level rise can only come from the melting of ice on land or the thermal expansion of water – so it is a key indicator of overall changes.
WMO (2019) "WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018", WMO Available at https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=5789
Climate Change Drives Widespread and Rapid Thermokarst Development in Very Cold Permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic
This paper reports that the melting of the permafrost in one area of the Arctic is happening much faster than had been projected by models, even running the worst-case scenarios based on emissions growth. What is being seen now was not meant to be happening until 2090.
One might conclude that this is evidence of climate change occurring much faster than past predictions and therefore the situation is more dangerous than intergovernmental consensus had warned and that the cause of this discrepancy could be the positive feedback loops, where the Earth is now heating itself.
Farquharson, L. M., Romanovsky, V.E., Cable, W. L., Walker, D. A., Kokelj,S. V., & Nicolsky, D. (2019). "Climate change drives widespread and rapid thermokarst development in very cold permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters, 46. Available at https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082187
Greenland Melt Drives Continuous Export Of Methane From The Ice-Sheet Bed.
This study explains that ice sheets have been ignored in assessments of global methane predictions and budgets. This research found that ice sheets overlie extensive, biologically active methanogenic wetlands and that high rates of methane export to the atmosphere can occur as ice sheets melt. The research shows that the methane situation is worse than we thought.
One might conclude that this is another example of how methane has not been given sufficient attention in our climate change assessments, which is a grave error given how powerfully warming the gas is in the atmosphere.
Lamarche-Gagnon, G. et al (2019) "Greenland melt drives continuous export of methane from the ice-sheet bed." Nature Vol. 565, pages 73–77. Available from https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0800-0 (Accessed Jan 3, 2019)
Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth In The Four Years 2014-2017: Implications For The Paris Agreement
This study finds that methane's increase since 2007 was not expected in future greenhouse gas scenarios compliant with the targets of the Paris Agreement. If the increase continues at the same rates it may become very difficult to meet the Paris goals. The radiative forcing, or heating effect from methane is about 25% stronger than the value used in the IPCC assessment. There is now urgent need to reduce methane emissions, especially from the fossil fuel industry. If the increased methane burden is driven by increased emissions from natural sources or driven by a decline in the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, and that these are climate feedbacks (warming driving further warming) then the implications are serious indeed.
One might conclude from this study that our situation is more precarious than we had been told before, that methane emissions need cutting immediately, but that we don’t know if reducing those emissions will make much difference to atmospheric levels, so we need to consider other options. Such options might include limited and cautious forms of geoengineering but must also include adaptation to future climate chaos. There is no conclusive evidence from this study that there is significant methane release from hydrates on the Arctic seafloor (which is the major concern, as that would threaten human extinction).
Nisbet, E. G., et al. (2019) “Very strong atmospheric methane growth in the four years 2014-2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement” Global Biogeochemical Cycles Vol. 3 Issue 33 pp 318-342, Available at https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB006009
Permafrost Nitrous Oxide Emissions Observed On A Landscape Scale Using The Airborne Eddy-Covariance Method
This study looked at Nitrous Oxide, a greenhouse gas nearly 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide and which stays in the atmosphere for an average of 114 years. It has “conventionally been assumed to have minimal emissions in permafrost regions”, according to the authors. They found that nitrous oxide emissions are 12 times higher than previously thought and therefore more of a threat. These emissions are coming from melting permafrost. Nitrous oxide also poses a second threat because in the stratosphere, sunlight and oxygen convert the gas into nitrogen oxides, which destroy the ozone layer.
One might conclude that this study shows how once we destabilise the climate sufficiently, there are unforeseen consequences, so that we are not in control of the situation (if we ever were).
Wilkerson, J. et.al. (2019) “Permafrost nitrous oxide emissions observed on a landscape scale using the airborne eddy-covariance method” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 19, 4257-4268. Available at https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4257-2019 (Accessed April 19 2019)
Large Influence Of Soil Moisture On Long-Term Terrestrial Carbon Uptake.
This study is the first to actually quantify the effects through the 21st century and demonstrates that wetter-than-normal years do not compensate for losses in carbon uptake during dryer-than-normal years, caused by events such as droughts or heatwaves. That is an important finding because, currently, the ocean and terrestrial biosphere (forests, savannas, etc.) are absorbing about 50% of releases of greenhouse gases by human activity —explaining the bleaching of coral reefs and acidification of the ocean, as well as the increase of carbon storage in our forests. The authors state: "It is unclear, however, whether the land can continue to uptake anthropogenic emissions at the current rates." Instead, there findings suggest that the increasing trend in carbon uptake rate [on land] may not be sustained past the middle of this century and could result in accelerated atmospheric CO2 growth.
One might conclude that this is another example of how the planet’s capacity for moderating human activity has been breached, and therefore we now face runaway climate change, so that drawing down and cutting carbon is no longer a sufficient agenda.
Gentine, P. et al (2019) "Large influence of soil moisture on long-term terrestrial carbon uptake." Nature 565, 476–479
What Lies Beneath: The Understatement Of Existential Climate Risk
This report explains how the process of consensus and scientific conservativism in the IPCC means that over decades it has systematically under-estimated the pace and risks of climate change. It explains that this reckless conservativism has been supported by a culture of political expediency: deciding what is acceptable to say to placate governments and their corporate interests. It gives details of how the IPCC have excluded key information over the years due to uncertainty, rather than including it based on a precautionary principle. It explains how the IPCC shifted the baseline from the start of the industrial revolution to 1850 in order to make the targets seem more feasible. It then argues that IPCC carbon budgets are false; once projected emissions from future food production and deforestation are taken into account, there is no carbon budget left for fossil-fuel emissions within a 2°C global heating target. (p24).
The authors argue that rapid reduction of carbon emissions was excluded from consideration by policymakers because it is deemed to be too economically dislocating. Therefore the IPCC accepted the continuing expansion of fossil fuels in the first half of the 21st century, eventually counteracted by massive expansion of negative emission technologies, including those not yet invented or not economic at scale, in the second half of the century. The authors that that in so doing, both the IPCC and government policymakers are complicit today in destroying the very conditions which make human life possible – and that there is no greater crime against humanity (p39). The authors condemn the “fragility at the highest levels of corporate and public service leaderships. Their ability to spot, identify and handle unexpected, non-normative events is... perilously inadequate at critical moments...” (p38).
The authors argue that a different paradigm was required, that focused on existential risk management i.e. deliberations on what is needed to protect billions of people and even the very survival of the human race. That “requires brutally honest articulation of the risks, opportunities and the response time frame, the development of new existential risk-management techniques outside conventional politics, and global leadership and integrated policy.” (p15).
One might conclude that this report adds weight to the arguments in the Deep Adaptation paper that those working on environmental issues are amongst the worst deniers of likely collapse, due to their income, status and identity being wedded to a narrative of pragmatism of incremental change. One might also wonder whether the IPCC’s past winners of the Nobel Prize may one day face calls to appear in a future Climate Truth and Reconciliation process, for crimes against humanity.
Spratt, D., & Dunlop, I. (2018) "What lies beneath: The Understatement Of Existential Climate Risk" National Centre for Climate Restoration. Available from https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au (Accessed Jan 1 2019)
Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low-level clouds
This study reports on the latest insight into the cooling effect of the aerosol pollution from human activity. It is mainstream consensus that the global climate is cooled by about 0.5 C due to an aerosol masking effect, coming from pollution from burning coal and other dirty fuels. The research concludes that the atmosphere is twice as sensitive to aerosols as was previously thought, so that more of the sun’s rays are reflected away from the Earth than previously calculated.
One might conclude that this finding means it is game over for humanity preserving our current civilisation. By which I mean as we clean up our dirty pollution, then the world’s climate will heat further and very fast (as the masking effect from such pollution only lasts about a month or so). Some may conclude that this situation means we even risk rates of warming that could trigger cascading feedbacks that risk not only societal collapse but human extinction. With that in mind, more people may call for Marine Cloud Brightening to be tested right now over the Arctic.
Rosenfeld David; Zhu, Yannian; Wang, Minghuai; Zheng, Youtong; Goren, Tom & Yu, Shaocai (2019) "Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low-level clouds" Science Vol. 363, Issue 6427. Available at https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6427/eaav0566
Status of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and Goals of the Workshop
This is a presentation for a workshop where the latest generation of climate models was discussed.
The latest climate models, which use more advanced scientific methods, are showing temperatures rises at least 2 degrees hotter than previous projections based on the same carbon emissions. There are a variety of theories about why, some of which relate to the importance of more dynamic relationships between multiple factors. Although not a peer-reviewed paper, it is included here because it helps explain why the IPCC and climate science community have been under-predicting the pace and impacts of climate change.
One might conclude from this conference presentation that we will soon have a more accurate view of what the climate may do in future. That would be a mistake, because models are not great predictors of climate. Instead, the fact that these models are projecting more rapid and damaging changes than past models shows how the previous confidence of climate scientists and policy makers, including within the IPCC, was based on a false pride in a particular mode of human thought – using statistics and computers. Instead, information from the paleo record, basic logic, and actual observations, combined with the precautionary approach and a reverence for nature, could have led to more intelligent conversations over decades within the field of climate science and policy. However, these models do suggest that the future IPCC meetings and reports are going to be quite dramatic. Yet if the international system of cooperation breaks down in the face of climate disruption then their soft power may disappear.
Eyring, V; Flato, G; Lamarque, J; Meehl, J; Senior, C; Stouffer, R & Taylor K (2019) “Status of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and Goals of the Workshop” Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Available at https://cmip6workshop19.sciencesconf.org/data/CMIP6_CMIP6AnalysisWorkshop_Barcelona_190325_FINAL.pdf
RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE
Worldwide Decline Of The Entomofauna: A Review Of Its Drivers
The study shows that the biodiversity of insects is threatened worldwide. Compiling a range of studies, it estimates 80% of the total biomass of insects has disappeared in 25-30 years. It reveals dramatic rates of decline that may lead to the extinction of 40% of the world's insect species over the next few decades. This is a huge problem for ecosystems and the human race, as insects are at the base of every food web; they pollinate the large majority of plant species, keep the soil healthy, recycle nutrients, and control pests. The paper finds that intensive agriculture is the main driver of the declines, particularly the heavy use of pesticides, but that climate change is also a significant factor.
One might conclude from this report that humans have made the environment more susceptible to collapse from climate change, by weakening ecosystems. Together, this may be a perfect storm that speeds up the collapse agricultural productivity and therefore human civilisation as we know it today.
Sánchez-Bayo, F., & Wyckhuys, K. A. G. (2019) “Worldwide decline of the entomofauna: A review of its drivers” Biological Conservation Vol. 232, pp 8-27. Available at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718313636
IPBES Global Assessment (Preview)
This study will be a 1,800-page tome authored by 400 scientists, published by a UN agency. In a preview of the full document, it chronicles widespread destruction wrought by humans, some of it irreparable. Up to a million of Earth's estimated eight million species face extinction, many of them within decades. This is shown to have major impacts on agriculture and thus food supply. Therefore “feeding the world in a sustainable manner entails the transformation of food systems," the report notes. It calls for revamping global food production, retooling the financial sector, moving beyond GDP as a measure of progress and many other "transformative changes" to both save Nature and ourselves.
One might conclude from this report, and how it has been promoted ahead of full publication, that the scientific community involved in the environment is starting to panic as they see the collapse of ecosystems around the world.
Díaz, Sandra; Settele, Josef; Brondízio, Eduardo et al (2019) "Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services [Advance copy]" IPBES. Available at https://www.ipbes.net/system/tdf/ipbes_7_10_add-1-_advance_0.pdf (accessed 7 July 2019)
Co-Extinctions Annihilate Planetary Life During Extreme Environmental Change
This study concludes that many species die together when key species are badly affected. “As our understanding of the importance of ecological interactions in shaping ecosystem identity advances, it is becoming clearer how the disappearance of consumers following the depletion of their resources - a process known as ‘co-extinction’ - is more likely the major driver of biodiversity loss… ecological dependencies amplify the direct effects of environmental change on the collapse of planetary diversity by up to ten times.”
One might conclude that Chief Seattle was the smart one in the room when he told the invaders: “Humankind has not woven the web of life.
We are but one thread within it.
Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.
All things are bound together.
All things connect.”
Strona, Giovanni & Bradshaw, Corey J. A. (2018) “Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change” Nature: Scientific Reports Vol. 8, Article number: 16724. Available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1 accessed Jun 23 2019
SOCIETAL IMPACTS
Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ºC
This study from the IPCC warned that the impacts and costs 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming will be far greater than the expectations previously established by the IPCC. It argues that half a degree may be the difference between a world with coral reefs and Arctic summer sea ice, and a world without them. To meet a goal of only 1.5 °C average warming, this demands immediately cutting the planet’s emissions to 45 % below 2010 levels by 2030. The report states this target means “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society.” It notes that the world is on track for a 3-4°C temperature rise: something that will be catastrophic for human civilisation.
One might conclude from this report that the climate system is more sensitive than policy makers knew, and therefore mitigation targets should be even more stringent. However, the report is from the IPCC, which now has a proven track record of underestimating and toning down findings. Looking at its recommendations, which include rolling out technologies for carbon sequestration which do not exist yet, one may conclude that this report is the first time readers are able to conclude that it is too late to stop catastrophic warming, and so the agenda needs to more clearly involve adaptation.
IPCC (2018), "Global Warming of 1.5 ºC", IPCC. Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15 (accessed 30 Dec 2018)
The Effects Of Climate Extremes On Global Agricultural Yields
This study finds that Africa is most vulnerable to hunger as temperatures rise, in part because most of their grain is consumed by humans, so there is little leeway when harvests fail. It argues that “increasing the resilience climate extremes requires a concerted effort at local, regional and international levels to reduce negative impacts for farmers and communities depending on agriculture for their living."
One might conclude from this study that adaptation to climate change could become the central principle for anti-poverty programmes across Africa and the majority world.
Vogel, Elisabeth, et al. (2019) “The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields” Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, No 5 Available at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab154b (accessed July 3 2019)
The State of the World’s Biodiversity for Food and Agriculture
This study explains that of 6000 cultivable plant species, only 9 account for 66% of total global crop production, which means they are very vulnerable to diseases. More food than ever is produced, but in monocultures and only 1% of farmland is used in organic production. There is also a rapid decline in key ecosystems that deliver numerous services essential to food and agriculture, including supply of freshwater, protection against storms, floods and other hazards, and habitats for species such as fish and pollinators. This situation of limited food diversity increases the risk of from climate change, which will stress plants and animals and make disease more likely.
One might conclude from this study that our modern agricultural system, driven by profit, has accentuated the hazards from climate change and we urgently need leadership to diversify our food systems, as described in my review of food security here.
Bélanger, J., & Pilling, D. (eds.). (2019) “The State of the World’s Biodiversity for Food and Agriculture”, FAO Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture Assessments Available at http://www.fao.org/3/CA3129EN/CA3129EN.pdf (Accessed April 1 2019)
Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries
This study finds that global fisheries have been shrinking due to climate change. It concludes that by combining the data on global fishery populations with maps of rising ocean temperatures from 1930 to 2010, in turn understanding the effects of temperature changes on sustainable catches. This analysis is aside from the impacts of ocean acidification on fisheries.
One might conclude from this study that the human race is being taught a lesson in remembering we are part of nature and nature is part of us. Because not only is our own human-designed agriculture on land at threat of disruptions through climate change, but fish are also disappearing just when we might seek other means of sustenance.
Plagányi, É. (2019) “Climate change impacts on fisheries” Science Vol. 363, Issue 6430, pp. 930-931. Available at http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/930 (Accessed April 1 2019)
Climate Change and Poverty
This report notes that the world is increasingly at risk of “climate apartheid”, where the rich pay to escape heat and hunger caused by the escalating climate crisis. It says that the global south (or majority world) will bear an estimated 75% of the costs of the climate crisis. It explains how the impacts of global heating are likely to undermine not only basic rights to life, water, food, and housing for hundreds of millions of people, but also democracy and the rule of law. “Climate change threatens to undo the last 50 years of progress in development, global health, and poverty reduction.” In addition, “the risk of community discontent, of growing inequality, and of even greater levels of deprivation among some groups, will likely stimulate nationalist, xenophobic, racist and other responses.” Therefore, “…democracy and the rule of law, as well as a wide range of civil and political rights are every bit at risk”. The report therefore aligns with the premise of Deep Adaptation that climate change will create a cascade of disruption, beginning with food and water, leading to breakdowns in societies. In the report, the author Philp Alston strongly criticises all those working to uphold human rights, including his own previous work, for not making the climate crisis a central issue.
One might conclude that finally someone in a senior role is joining the climate dots to describe how changes are affecting human societies. The author’s criticism of the reticence of his own professional community to engage with how tragic the situation is becoming, and the difficult issues it invites us to discuss, resonates with the analysis in the Deep Adaptation paper on the denial within the environmental movement and profession.
Alston, Philip (2019) “Climate change and poverty” United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. Available at https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/RegularSessions/Session41/Documents/A_HRC_41_39.docx
Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume II: Impacts, Risks, And Adaptation In The United States
This report is focused on consequences of a changing climate for government departments in the United States. It points out that departmentalising can be counterproductive because you need to see whole systems, but whole-system modelling "is incredibly challenging. It is hard enough to model one system on its own, let alone connect it with a series of others."
One might conclude from this study that although some governmental bureaucracies are seeking to engage with our predicament, despite political volatility, there is little that can be done without leadership from the top to reshape the whole of the economy and society. Which will either energise you or help you to let go, depending on your perspective on the political process in your country.
National Climate Assessment (2018) "Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II" US Global Change Research Program. Available from https://nca2018.globalchange.gov (Accessed Jan 1 2019)
SIGNIFICANCE OF RESPONSE
Warming Assessment Of The Bottom-Up Paris Agreement Emissions Pledges
This study looked at the climate implications of current emissions pathways of countries. Under the Paris agreement, there is no top-down consensus on what is a fair share of responsibility to cut carbon emissions. To get around these differing concepts of fairness, the paper assesses each nation by the least stringent standards they set themselves and then extrapolates this to the world. The findings are that current policies and initiatives are putting the world on course for a global average rise of 5 degrees.
One might conclude from this paper that despite widespread knowledge of climate change amongst politicians and their civil servants, current policies and trajectories mean we will experience global heating sufficient to collapse civilisation and even threaten our own extinction. One might conclude therefore that something is very broken – and worldwide.
Robiou du Pont, Y. & Meinshausen, M. (Nov 2018) "Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges", Nature Communications Vol. 9 Article 4810. Available from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07223-9
Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019
The UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) is the flagship report of the United Nations on worldwide efforts to reduce disaster risk. This study explained how “risk science is changing. Hazards interact with each other in increasingly complex ways…” It outlines a new Disaster Risk Assessment framework called Sendai Framework which treats risk as a systemic and complex thing. Climate change is seen to exacerbate others risks and now means that risk reduction policies and measures need to be much more ambitious.
One might conclude that this UN agency is gearing up to provide a new comprehensive and holistic philosophy and framework for how to govern societies in turmoil. One might conclude that such a task won’t have a chance of helping if pursued in such a technocratic fashion.
UNDRR (2019). Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)
To discuss this research or contribute to a future Compendium, visit the Deep Adaptation Forum's Research Group.
Acknowledgements: Professor Bendell thanks Matthew Slater for Research Assistance in the preparation of this Compendium and Alan Heeks for funding that assistance.
Since the Deep Adaptation paper was released from IFLAS at the end of July 2018, there have been many alarming reports about environmental change and its implications for humanity. These reports, from the world’s leading scientists and international organisations, provide extra weight to the argument that humanity needs to prepare for disruptive impacts as well as seeking to curb them. Prepared by the author of the Deep Adaptation paper, Professor Jem Bendell, this Compendium summarises some of the more significant studies. The Compendium is divided into four sections. The first is on our changing climate, the second is on related environmental changes, and the third is on societal impacts and the fourth is on the significance of our response.
These summaries of 23 studies over the 12 months since July 2018 is nowhere near exhaustive, but provides a basis for an up-to-date discussion. In most summaries of each research report, Professor Bendell offers a short reflection in a paragraph beginning “One might conclude that…” Such paragraphs should not be equated with what the research paper authors write themselves.
If you work on this topic professionally, or have written
one of the papers and would like to comment, we encourage you to consider
joining in the Research Discussion Group on the Deep Adaptation Forum at
www.deepadaptation.info. This Compendium does not include recent research on mitigation
innovations or on adaptation to climate change, the latter of which will be
covered in a future summary. If you are a researcher and could help with
compiling such a Compendium on Adaptation, for release in 2020, please join the
Research Group where you will find some guidance for contributing. To keep
up-to-date with future research summaries, please consider subscribing to the
Deep Adaptation Quarterly.To reference this compendium, please cite:
Bendell, J. (2019) Compendium of Research Reports on Climate Chaos and Impacts, Unpublished Research Note, Institute for Leadership and Sustainability (IFLAS), University of Cumbria, UK.
OUR CHANGING CLIMATE
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
This study introduced the notion of "tipping cascades" (p4) in our climate system, helping us to understand the risk posed to the future of the human race from destabilising our climate. The list of potential tipping points or cascading systems that the paper discusses includes the thaw of permafrost, which would release trapped greenhouse gases; the death of the Amazon rainforest, which would eliminate one of the most powerful natural ways that atmospheric carbon dioxide gets reduced; and the loss of ice sheets. It explains strong, intrinsic, biogeophysical feedbacks that are difficult to influence by human actions. “If these tipping points were to cascade, a high level of warming could be locked in no matter what humans tried to do" (p6). Agricultural production and water supplies are especially vulnerable to changes in the hydroclimate, leading to hot/dry or cool/wet extremes. Societal declines, collapses, migrations/resettlements, reorganizations, and cultural changes were often associated with severe regional droughts and with the global megadrought at 4.2–3.9 thousand years before present, all occurring within the relative stability of the narrow global Holocene temperature range of approximately ±1°C (p5). The authors describe the possibility of a climate trajectory that they call Hothouse Earth. Such a situation would exceed the limits of adaptation and result in a substantial overall decrease in agricultural production, increased prices, and even more disparity between wealthy and poor countries (p5). A Hothouse Earth trajectory would almost certainly flood deltaic environments, increase the risk of damage from coastal storms, and eliminate coral reefs (and all of the benefits that they provide for societies). While reducing emissions is a priority, much more could be done to reduce direct human pressures on critical biomes that contribute to the regulation of the state of the Earth System through carbon sinks and moisture feedbacks, such as the Amazon and boreal forests, and to build much more effective stewardship of the marine and terrestrial biospheres in general (p5). The contemporary way of guiding development founded on theories, tools, and beliefs of gradual or incremental change, with a focus on economy efficiency, will likely not be adequate to cope with this trajectory (p6).
One might conclude that this study shows how we need to not only have systemic change to drawdown and cut carbon, but also that we need to prepare to deeply adapt to the coming climate chaos. The mainstream climate adaptation community has been based on an assumption of maintaining current socio-economic systems, and this study could imply that we move beyond that to discuss how to adapt to a breakdown in our normal societies (i.e. the “deep adaptation” agenda).
Steffen, W. et al (July 2018) "Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene", PNAS. Available from: https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2018/07/31/1810141115.full.pdf (accessed 30 Dec 2018)
Global Warming Will Happen Faster Than We Think
This study concludes that three lines of evidence suggest that global warming will be faster than projected in the 2018 IPCC special report. First, greenhouse-gas emissions are still rising – and more rapidly. Second, governments are cleaning up other forms of air pollution faster than the IPCC and most climate modellers have assumed, thereby reducing the aerosol masking effect (global dimming). Third, there are signs that the planet might be entering a natural warm phase that could last for a couple of decades. The Pacific Ocean seems to be warming up, in accord with a slow climate cycle known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. The authors conclude that "These three forces reinforce each other. We estimate that rising greenhouse-gas emissions, along with declines in air pollution, bring forward the estimated date of 1.5 °C of warming to around 2030, with the 2 °C boundary reached by 2045"
One might conclude from this study that it is time to listen to the many critics of the IPCC for being too conservative in its estimates, arising from questionable methodology and political influence (see below). The implication is that we cannot continue our incremental efforts like we do now; even if we try to, the planet won’t let us.
Xu,Y., Ramanathan,V. & Victor, D. (2019) "Global warming will happen faster than we think" Nature 564, 30-32 Available from https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07586-5?fbclid=IwAR2-BZM9BB8wXGw37sQ54MgUQ5kSPWBod060HQjVuc658KidE_s0x25cXPw (Accessed Jan 5 2019)
Global Reconstruction Of Historical Ocean Heat Storage And Transport
This study used analysis of real time currents and ocean temperature changes to reconstruct ocean temperature changes over the past century. Estimating for global, full-depth ocean coverage, they reveal warming since 1871. They conclude that more than 90% of the heat trapped by humanity’s greenhouse gas emissions has been absorbed by the seas, with just a few per cent heating the air, land and ice caps respectively.
One might conclude from this study that we should heed those scientists who argue that there is a significant time lag in the effect of increased CO2 on global average atmospheric temperatures. Which means that a lot of heating is already locked in over the coming decades, whatever we do to emissions. Like a hot water radiator in your living room, this heat will warm our air. That suggests we need to explore how to prepare.
Zanna, L., Khatiwala, S., Gregory, J. M., Ison J. & Heimbach, P. (2019) "Global reconstruction of historical ocean heat storage and transport", PNAS. Available from https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1808838115 (Accessed Jan 8 2019)
WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018
The study provided an authoritative statement on the accelerating rate of sea level rise. Global mean sea level for 2018 was around 3.7 mm higher than in 2017 and the highest on record. Over the period January 1993 to December 2018, the average rate of rise was 3.15 ± 0.3 mm yr-1, while the estimated acceleration was 0.1 mm yr (p 16). However, if one does not restrict analysis to the caution of established statisticians and uses the measurements of sea level rise over the last few years to indicate a possible trend (rather than anomalies), then this means the rate of rise is increasing.
This study also provided an overview of some of the impacts from climate change. In particular it mentioned agriculture and the displacement of people. It explained that exposure of the agricultural sector to climate extremes is threatening to reverse gains made in ending hunger and malnutrition, as world hunger is now rising after a prolonged decline. Hunger is significantly worse in countries with agricultural systems that are highly sensitive to rainfall and temperature variability and severe drought, and where the livelihood of a high proportion of the population depends on agriculture. Displacement is also rising due to climate change. Out of the 17.7 million IDPs tracked by the IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix (IOM DTM), over 2 million people were displaced due to disasters linked to weather and climate events as at September 2018.
One might conclude from the data on sea level rise that the whole climate system is now changing in a non-linear way. That means a form of runaway climate change. Because, as explained in the Deep Adaptation paper, sea level rise can only come from the melting of ice on land or the thermal expansion of water – so it is a key indicator of overall changes.
WMO (2019) "WMO Statement on the State of the Global Climate in 2018", WMO Available at https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=5789
Climate Change Drives Widespread and Rapid Thermokarst Development in Very Cold Permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic
This paper reports that the melting of the permafrost in one area of the Arctic is happening much faster than had been projected by models, even running the worst-case scenarios based on emissions growth. What is being seen now was not meant to be happening until 2090.
One might conclude that this is evidence of climate change occurring much faster than past predictions and therefore the situation is more dangerous than intergovernmental consensus had warned and that the cause of this discrepancy could be the positive feedback loops, where the Earth is now heating itself.
Farquharson, L. M., Romanovsky, V.E., Cable, W. L., Walker, D. A., Kokelj,S. V., & Nicolsky, D. (2019). "Climate change drives widespread and rapid thermokarst development in very cold permafrost in the Canadian High Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters, 46. Available at https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL082187
Greenland Melt Drives Continuous Export Of Methane From The Ice-Sheet Bed.
This study explains that ice sheets have been ignored in assessments of global methane predictions and budgets. This research found that ice sheets overlie extensive, biologically active methanogenic wetlands and that high rates of methane export to the atmosphere can occur as ice sheets melt. The research shows that the methane situation is worse than we thought.
One might conclude that this is another example of how methane has not been given sufficient attention in our climate change assessments, which is a grave error given how powerfully warming the gas is in the atmosphere.
Lamarche-Gagnon, G. et al (2019) "Greenland melt drives continuous export of methane from the ice-sheet bed." Nature Vol. 565, pages 73–77. Available from https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0800-0 (Accessed Jan 3, 2019)
Very Strong Atmospheric Methane Growth In The Four Years 2014-2017: Implications For The Paris Agreement
This study finds that methane's increase since 2007 was not expected in future greenhouse gas scenarios compliant with the targets of the Paris Agreement. If the increase continues at the same rates it may become very difficult to meet the Paris goals. The radiative forcing, or heating effect from methane is about 25% stronger than the value used in the IPCC assessment. There is now urgent need to reduce methane emissions, especially from the fossil fuel industry. If the increased methane burden is driven by increased emissions from natural sources or driven by a decline in the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere, and that these are climate feedbacks (warming driving further warming) then the implications are serious indeed.
One might conclude from this study that our situation is more precarious than we had been told before, that methane emissions need cutting immediately, but that we don’t know if reducing those emissions will make much difference to atmospheric levels, so we need to consider other options. Such options might include limited and cautious forms of geoengineering but must also include adaptation to future climate chaos. There is no conclusive evidence from this study that there is significant methane release from hydrates on the Arctic seafloor (which is the major concern, as that would threaten human extinction).
Nisbet, E. G., et al. (2019) “Very strong atmospheric methane growth in the four years 2014-2017: Implications for the Paris Agreement” Global Biogeochemical Cycles Vol. 3 Issue 33 pp 318-342, Available at https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB006009
Permafrost Nitrous Oxide Emissions Observed On A Landscape Scale Using The Airborne Eddy-Covariance Method
This study looked at Nitrous Oxide, a greenhouse gas nearly 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide and which stays in the atmosphere for an average of 114 years. It has “conventionally been assumed to have minimal emissions in permafrost regions”, according to the authors. They found that nitrous oxide emissions are 12 times higher than previously thought and therefore more of a threat. These emissions are coming from melting permafrost. Nitrous oxide also poses a second threat because in the stratosphere, sunlight and oxygen convert the gas into nitrogen oxides, which destroy the ozone layer.
One might conclude that this study shows how once we destabilise the climate sufficiently, there are unforeseen consequences, so that we are not in control of the situation (if we ever were).
Wilkerson, J. et.al. (2019) “Permafrost nitrous oxide emissions observed on a landscape scale using the airborne eddy-covariance method” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Vol. 19, 4257-4268. Available at https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-4257-2019 (Accessed April 19 2019)
Large Influence Of Soil Moisture On Long-Term Terrestrial Carbon Uptake.
This study is the first to actually quantify the effects through the 21st century and demonstrates that wetter-than-normal years do not compensate for losses in carbon uptake during dryer-than-normal years, caused by events such as droughts or heatwaves. That is an important finding because, currently, the ocean and terrestrial biosphere (forests, savannas, etc.) are absorbing about 50% of releases of greenhouse gases by human activity —explaining the bleaching of coral reefs and acidification of the ocean, as well as the increase of carbon storage in our forests. The authors state: "It is unclear, however, whether the land can continue to uptake anthropogenic emissions at the current rates." Instead, there findings suggest that the increasing trend in carbon uptake rate [on land] may not be sustained past the middle of this century and could result in accelerated atmospheric CO2 growth.
One might conclude that this is another example of how the planet’s capacity for moderating human activity has been breached, and therefore we now face runaway climate change, so that drawing down and cutting carbon is no longer a sufficient agenda.
Gentine, P. et al (2019) "Large influence of soil moisture on long-term terrestrial carbon uptake." Nature 565, 476–479
What Lies Beneath: The Understatement Of Existential Climate Risk
This report explains how the process of consensus and scientific conservativism in the IPCC means that over decades it has systematically under-estimated the pace and risks of climate change. It explains that this reckless conservativism has been supported by a culture of political expediency: deciding what is acceptable to say to placate governments and their corporate interests. It gives details of how the IPCC have excluded key information over the years due to uncertainty, rather than including it based on a precautionary principle. It explains how the IPCC shifted the baseline from the start of the industrial revolution to 1850 in order to make the targets seem more feasible. It then argues that IPCC carbon budgets are false; once projected emissions from future food production and deforestation are taken into account, there is no carbon budget left for fossil-fuel emissions within a 2°C global heating target. (p24).
The authors argue that rapid reduction of carbon emissions was excluded from consideration by policymakers because it is deemed to be too economically dislocating. Therefore the IPCC accepted the continuing expansion of fossil fuels in the first half of the 21st century, eventually counteracted by massive expansion of negative emission technologies, including those not yet invented or not economic at scale, in the second half of the century. The authors that that in so doing, both the IPCC and government policymakers are complicit today in destroying the very conditions which make human life possible – and that there is no greater crime against humanity (p39). The authors condemn the “fragility at the highest levels of corporate and public service leaderships. Their ability to spot, identify and handle unexpected, non-normative events is... perilously inadequate at critical moments...” (p38).
The authors argue that a different paradigm was required, that focused on existential risk management i.e. deliberations on what is needed to protect billions of people and even the very survival of the human race. That “requires brutally honest articulation of the risks, opportunities and the response time frame, the development of new existential risk-management techniques outside conventional politics, and global leadership and integrated policy.” (p15).
One might conclude that this report adds weight to the arguments in the Deep Adaptation paper that those working on environmental issues are amongst the worst deniers of likely collapse, due to their income, status and identity being wedded to a narrative of pragmatism of incremental change. One might also wonder whether the IPCC’s past winners of the Nobel Prize may one day face calls to appear in a future Climate Truth and Reconciliation process, for crimes against humanity.
Spratt, D., & Dunlop, I. (2018) "What lies beneath: The Understatement Of Existential Climate Risk" National Centre for Climate Restoration. Available from https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au (Accessed Jan 1 2019)
Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low-level clouds
This study reports on the latest insight into the cooling effect of the aerosol pollution from human activity. It is mainstream consensus that the global climate is cooled by about 0.5 C due to an aerosol masking effect, coming from pollution from burning coal and other dirty fuels. The research concludes that the atmosphere is twice as sensitive to aerosols as was previously thought, so that more of the sun’s rays are reflected away from the Earth than previously calculated.
One might conclude that this finding means it is game over for humanity preserving our current civilisation. By which I mean as we clean up our dirty pollution, then the world’s climate will heat further and very fast (as the masking effect from such pollution only lasts about a month or so). Some may conclude that this situation means we even risk rates of warming that could trigger cascading feedbacks that risk not only societal collapse but human extinction. With that in mind, more people may call for Marine Cloud Brightening to be tested right now over the Arctic.
Rosenfeld David; Zhu, Yannian; Wang, Minghuai; Zheng, Youtong; Goren, Tom & Yu, Shaocai (2019) "Aerosol-driven droplet concentrations dominate coverage and water of oceanic low-level clouds" Science Vol. 363, Issue 6427. Available at https://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6427/eaav0566
Status of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and Goals of the Workshop
This is a presentation for a workshop where the latest generation of climate models was discussed.
The latest climate models, which use more advanced scientific methods, are showing temperatures rises at least 2 degrees hotter than previous projections based on the same carbon emissions. There are a variety of theories about why, some of which relate to the importance of more dynamic relationships between multiple factors. Although not a peer-reviewed paper, it is included here because it helps explain why the IPCC and climate science community have been under-predicting the pace and impacts of climate change.
One might conclude from this conference presentation that we will soon have a more accurate view of what the climate may do in future. That would be a mistake, because models are not great predictors of climate. Instead, the fact that these models are projecting more rapid and damaging changes than past models shows how the previous confidence of climate scientists and policy makers, including within the IPCC, was based on a false pride in a particular mode of human thought – using statistics and computers. Instead, information from the paleo record, basic logic, and actual observations, combined with the precautionary approach and a reverence for nature, could have led to more intelligent conversations over decades within the field of climate science and policy. However, these models do suggest that the future IPCC meetings and reports are going to be quite dramatic. Yet if the international system of cooperation breaks down in the face of climate disruption then their soft power may disappear.
Eyring, V; Flato, G; Lamarque, J; Meehl, J; Senior, C; Stouffer, R & Taylor K (2019) “Status of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and Goals of the Workshop” Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Available at https://cmip6workshop19.sciencesconf.org/data/CMIP6_CMIP6AnalysisWorkshop_Barcelona_190325_FINAL.pdf
RELATED ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE
Worldwide Decline Of The Entomofauna: A Review Of Its Drivers
The study shows that the biodiversity of insects is threatened worldwide. Compiling a range of studies, it estimates 80% of the total biomass of insects has disappeared in 25-30 years. It reveals dramatic rates of decline that may lead to the extinction of 40% of the world's insect species over the next few decades. This is a huge problem for ecosystems and the human race, as insects are at the base of every food web; they pollinate the large majority of plant species, keep the soil healthy, recycle nutrients, and control pests. The paper finds that intensive agriculture is the main driver of the declines, particularly the heavy use of pesticides, but that climate change is also a significant factor.
One might conclude from this report that humans have made the environment more susceptible to collapse from climate change, by weakening ecosystems. Together, this may be a perfect storm that speeds up the collapse agricultural productivity and therefore human civilisation as we know it today.
Sánchez-Bayo, F., & Wyckhuys, K. A. G. (2019) “Worldwide decline of the entomofauna: A review of its drivers” Biological Conservation Vol. 232, pp 8-27. Available at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0006320718313636
IPBES Global Assessment (Preview)
This study will be a 1,800-page tome authored by 400 scientists, published by a UN agency. In a preview of the full document, it chronicles widespread destruction wrought by humans, some of it irreparable. Up to a million of Earth's estimated eight million species face extinction, many of them within decades. This is shown to have major impacts on agriculture and thus food supply. Therefore “feeding the world in a sustainable manner entails the transformation of food systems," the report notes. It calls for revamping global food production, retooling the financial sector, moving beyond GDP as a measure of progress and many other "transformative changes" to both save Nature and ourselves.
One might conclude from this report, and how it has been promoted ahead of full publication, that the scientific community involved in the environment is starting to panic as they see the collapse of ecosystems around the world.
Díaz, Sandra; Settele, Josef; Brondízio, Eduardo et al (2019) "Summary for policymakers of the global assessment report on biodiversity and ecosystem services of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services [Advance copy]" IPBES. Available at https://www.ipbes.net/system/tdf/ipbes_7_10_add-1-_advance_0.pdf (accessed 7 July 2019)
Co-Extinctions Annihilate Planetary Life During Extreme Environmental Change
This study concludes that many species die together when key species are badly affected. “As our understanding of the importance of ecological interactions in shaping ecosystem identity advances, it is becoming clearer how the disappearance of consumers following the depletion of their resources - a process known as ‘co-extinction’ - is more likely the major driver of biodiversity loss… ecological dependencies amplify the direct effects of environmental change on the collapse of planetary diversity by up to ten times.”
One might conclude that Chief Seattle was the smart one in the room when he told the invaders: “Humankind has not woven the web of life.
We are but one thread within it.
Whatever we do to the web, we do to ourselves.
All things are bound together.
All things connect.”
Strona, Giovanni & Bradshaw, Corey J. A. (2018) “Co-extinctions annihilate planetary life during extreme environmental change” Nature: Scientific Reports Vol. 8, Article number: 16724. Available at https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-35068-1 accessed Jun 23 2019
SOCIETAL IMPACTS
Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ºC
This study from the IPCC warned that the impacts and costs 1.5 degrees Celsius of global warming will be far greater than the expectations previously established by the IPCC. It argues that half a degree may be the difference between a world with coral reefs and Arctic summer sea ice, and a world without them. To meet a goal of only 1.5 °C average warming, this demands immediately cutting the planet’s emissions to 45 % below 2010 levels by 2030. The report states this target means “rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society.” It notes that the world is on track for a 3-4°C temperature rise: something that will be catastrophic for human civilisation.
One might conclude from this report that the climate system is more sensitive than policy makers knew, and therefore mitigation targets should be even more stringent. However, the report is from the IPCC, which now has a proven track record of underestimating and toning down findings. Looking at its recommendations, which include rolling out technologies for carbon sequestration which do not exist yet, one may conclude that this report is the first time readers are able to conclude that it is too late to stop catastrophic warming, and so the agenda needs to more clearly involve adaptation.
IPCC (2018), "Global Warming of 1.5 ºC", IPCC. Available from: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15 (accessed 30 Dec 2018)
The Effects Of Climate Extremes On Global Agricultural Yields
This study finds that Africa is most vulnerable to hunger as temperatures rise, in part because most of their grain is consumed by humans, so there is little leeway when harvests fail. It argues that “increasing the resilience climate extremes requires a concerted effort at local, regional and international levels to reduce negative impacts for farmers and communities depending on agriculture for their living."
One might conclude from this study that adaptation to climate change could become the central principle for anti-poverty programmes across Africa and the majority world.
Vogel, Elisabeth, et al. (2019) “The effects of climate extremes on global agricultural yields” Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, No 5 Available at https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ab154b (accessed July 3 2019)
The State of the World’s Biodiversity for Food and Agriculture
This study explains that of 6000 cultivable plant species, only 9 account for 66% of total global crop production, which means they are very vulnerable to diseases. More food than ever is produced, but in monocultures and only 1% of farmland is used in organic production. There is also a rapid decline in key ecosystems that deliver numerous services essential to food and agriculture, including supply of freshwater, protection against storms, floods and other hazards, and habitats for species such as fish and pollinators. This situation of limited food diversity increases the risk of from climate change, which will stress plants and animals and make disease more likely.
One might conclude from this study that our modern agricultural system, driven by profit, has accentuated the hazards from climate change and we urgently need leadership to diversify our food systems, as described in my review of food security here.
Bélanger, J., & Pilling, D. (eds.). (2019) “The State of the World’s Biodiversity for Food and Agriculture”, FAO Commission on Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture Assessments Available at http://www.fao.org/3/CA3129EN/CA3129EN.pdf (Accessed April 1 2019)
Climate Change Impacts on Fisheries
This study finds that global fisheries have been shrinking due to climate change. It concludes that by combining the data on global fishery populations with maps of rising ocean temperatures from 1930 to 2010, in turn understanding the effects of temperature changes on sustainable catches. This analysis is aside from the impacts of ocean acidification on fisheries.
One might conclude from this study that the human race is being taught a lesson in remembering we are part of nature and nature is part of us. Because not only is our own human-designed agriculture on land at threat of disruptions through climate change, but fish are also disappearing just when we might seek other means of sustenance.
Plagányi, É. (2019) “Climate change impacts on fisheries” Science Vol. 363, Issue 6430, pp. 930-931. Available at http://science.sciencemag.org/content/363/6430/930 (Accessed April 1 2019)
Climate Change and Poverty
This report notes that the world is increasingly at risk of “climate apartheid”, where the rich pay to escape heat and hunger caused by the escalating climate crisis. It says that the global south (or majority world) will bear an estimated 75% of the costs of the climate crisis. It explains how the impacts of global heating are likely to undermine not only basic rights to life, water, food, and housing for hundreds of millions of people, but also democracy and the rule of law. “Climate change threatens to undo the last 50 years of progress in development, global health, and poverty reduction.” In addition, “the risk of community discontent, of growing inequality, and of even greater levels of deprivation among some groups, will likely stimulate nationalist, xenophobic, racist and other responses.” Therefore, “…democracy and the rule of law, as well as a wide range of civil and political rights are every bit at risk”. The report therefore aligns with the premise of Deep Adaptation that climate change will create a cascade of disruption, beginning with food and water, leading to breakdowns in societies. In the report, the author Philp Alston strongly criticises all those working to uphold human rights, including his own previous work, for not making the climate crisis a central issue.
One might conclude that finally someone in a senior role is joining the climate dots to describe how changes are affecting human societies. The author’s criticism of the reticence of his own professional community to engage with how tragic the situation is becoming, and the difficult issues it invites us to discuss, resonates with the analysis in the Deep Adaptation paper on the denial within the environmental movement and profession.
Alston, Philip (2019) “Climate change and poverty” United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. Available at https://www.ohchr.org/EN/HRBodies/HRC/RegularSessions/Session41/Documents/A_HRC_41_39.docx
Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume II: Impacts, Risks, And Adaptation In The United States
This report is focused on consequences of a changing climate for government departments in the United States. It points out that departmentalising can be counterproductive because you need to see whole systems, but whole-system modelling "is incredibly challenging. It is hard enough to model one system on its own, let alone connect it with a series of others."
One might conclude from this study that although some governmental bureaucracies are seeking to engage with our predicament, despite political volatility, there is little that can be done without leadership from the top to reshape the whole of the economy and society. Which will either energise you or help you to let go, depending on your perspective on the political process in your country.
National Climate Assessment (2018) "Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II" US Global Change Research Program. Available from https://nca2018.globalchange.gov (Accessed Jan 1 2019)
SIGNIFICANCE OF RESPONSE
Warming Assessment Of The Bottom-Up Paris Agreement Emissions Pledges
This study looked at the climate implications of current emissions pathways of countries. Under the Paris agreement, there is no top-down consensus on what is a fair share of responsibility to cut carbon emissions. To get around these differing concepts of fairness, the paper assesses each nation by the least stringent standards they set themselves and then extrapolates this to the world. The findings are that current policies and initiatives are putting the world on course for a global average rise of 5 degrees.
One might conclude from this paper that despite widespread knowledge of climate change amongst politicians and their civil servants, current policies and trajectories mean we will experience global heating sufficient to collapse civilisation and even threaten our own extinction. One might conclude therefore that something is very broken – and worldwide.
Robiou du Pont, Y. & Meinshausen, M. (Nov 2018) "Warming assessment of the bottom-up Paris Agreement emissions pledges", Nature Communications Vol. 9 Article 4810. Available from https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07223-9
Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2019
The UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction (GAR) is the flagship report of the United Nations on worldwide efforts to reduce disaster risk. This study explained how “risk science is changing. Hazards interact with each other in increasingly complex ways…” It outlines a new Disaster Risk Assessment framework called Sendai Framework which treats risk as a systemic and complex thing. Climate change is seen to exacerbate others risks and now means that risk reduction policies and measures need to be much more ambitious.
One might conclude that this UN agency is gearing up to provide a new comprehensive and holistic philosophy and framework for how to govern societies in turmoil. One might conclude that such a task won’t have a chance of helping if pursued in such a technocratic fashion.
UNDRR (2019). Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Geneva, Switzerland. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)
To discuss this research or contribute to a future Compendium, visit the Deep Adaptation Forum's Research Group.
Acknowledgements: Professor Bendell thanks Matthew Slater for Research Assistance in the preparation of this Compendium and Alan Heeks for funding that assistance.